The political configuration for the 2023 presidential election is fast gaining momentum in the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) where tentative aspirants are believed to have deployed their political machines for elementary mobilization and overtures. There is an innuendo that a perceived frontline aspirant for the APC presidential ticket to succeed President Muhammadu Buhari in 2023, APC national leader, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, may have been making overtures or negotiating with the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Boss Mustapha, to pair him as vice presidential candidate in the 2023 presidential race beginning with the primary election for the ticket of the ruling APC.

Even though, Tinubu has not formally declared his ambition for the 2023 presidential race, several mobilization and informal campaign groups have been noticed to be function under the political umbrella of the former Lagos State Governor and APC national leader. It will be recalled that at a ‘neutral period’ in the buildup to the 2015 general elections, Tinubu was reported to have declared at a political event in Ondo State that he would contest for president in the election of that year. He was later reported to have clarified that he will only contest if President Buhari will not be seeking re-election for second tenure. At that time there was controversy over the health status of the President, including calculations that he may not be fit to seek re-election. Suddenly, all the calculations failed.

Meanwhile, the bargaining for power rotation in the ruling APC has become strong despite opposition of some northern party leaders who have been arguing for abrogation of zoning and power rotation agreement between north and south in the ruling party and throw the presidential race open for the best candidate to emerge.

However, the bargaining, horse trading and consensus building for the 2023 APC presidential ticket has continued to deepen in the party. The president has promised to be neutral and allow level playing field for all stakeholders.

Some APC leaders were of the view that emergence of a Christian southern presidential candidate would be easier for northern APC leaders to manage in nominating a strong Muslim vice-presidential candidate to balance the race. The purported negotiation with Boss Mustapha is believed to be a strong bargaining point for Tinubu, southern Muslim. Mustapha is considered a strong principal officer in the Buhari administration. He is believed to have demonstrated to be a noble and humble state actor, non-controversial and laudable experience in governance. There is the belief that Mustapha’s humility and administrative dexterity may make him widely acceptable to northern leaders and stakeholders. Boss Mustapha is perceived in the APC to have apparently, become a star actor in the horse trading for the 2023 presidential election. The SGF is from the northeast; this may create seeming extra negotiation stratagem by the Tinubu camp to persuade party leaders and stakeholders in the northwest.

However, there has been display of Governor Lalong of Plateau State by some ad hoc campaign workers as running mate to Tinubu in 2023. This could be one of the permutations for alternative pairings in the negotiation for 2023. There is the fear that Lalong may limit Tinubu’s chances being from the north central. There are indications that such presidential pairing could lead to political tragedy in the elimination of the northeast and northwest from the power equation of the country’s body politic.

Our investigations revealed that some southern APC stakeholders are also negotiating for vice presidential ticket of the party, an indication of contradictory interests in the ruling party. Such horse trading may generate pressures for a northern presidential candidate. Details of this latter horse trading would be unfolded in our subsequent reports.

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