Economist, Eurasia Group differ on who wins Nigeria’s presidential race

Barely a week after The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Africa insisted that Peoples’ Democratic Party presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, will win the February 16 presidential election, Eurasia Group, reputed as the world’s largest political-risk consultancy, says President Muhammadu Buhari will win the election.

The EIU Africa had last weekend said the margin of victory was getting narrower as the election approaches, but Atiku and his political party will win the historic election.

The research unit of London-based The Economist Magazine had said in 2018 that the PDP will win the 2019 election.

“With the vote likely to be split in the North, Abubakar will find it easier to garner support from the country’s south, which has traditionally been a safe haven for the PDP.

However, in its own final Eurasia Group Politics First election forecast, the group, which was founded in 1998 by American political scientist Ian Bremmer, said Buhari has a 60 percent probability chance to win.

“Opposition candidate Atiku Abubakar has regained some momentum in recent weeks, but President Muhammadu Buhari remains favored to win (a 60% probability),” the group said.

“On election day, the ruling All Progressives Congress’s (APC’s) significantly greater control of local political structures and resources—it governs 23 states compared to the opposition’s 12—will boost voter mobilization and solidify Buhari’s advantage.”