Heineken UCL Special: Will Osimhen’s Absence Cost Napoli Against Milan Again?

Just over a week ago, Milan came into the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium and stunned Napoli 4-0. It was a result that no one expected and sent tongues wagging ahead of the sides’ Champions League quarter-final first-leg tie today.

Conspicuously missing on that fateful day was Napoli hitman Victor Osimhen. The Nigerian forward has helped put Napoli on the brink of their first Serie A title since 1990 with 21 goals.

Osimhen is again out of Napoli’s Champions League quarterfinal first leg against AC Milan after failing to overcome a groin injury in time to play in the San Siro on Wednesday. The 24-year-old was omitted from Luciano Spalletti’s squad for the trip to Milan and is now battling to prove his fitness for the second leg in Naples on April 18.

Napoli are all but Serie A champions. They’ve all but been Serie A champions for months now, so taking their eye off the ball domestically – perhaps in favour of continental success – might be understandable.

Over the longer term, it’s impossible to make the case that Napoli aren’t the best team in Italy right now. They’re the runaway leaders at the top of the table and Spalletti’s men have won more games (24), scored more goals (66) and have a better goal difference (+45) than any other side. In fact, their goal difference is nearly double that of Lazio in second place, and they’ve scored 18 more goals than any other team in the league.

This will be the first meeting between AC Milan and Napoli in European competition, but the home side have a poor recent record against Napoli in all competitions. Stefano Pioli’s side have won just one of their last nine home games against Napoli in all competitions (D3 L5), with that victory coming in the Coppa Italia quarter-final in 2018-19. Indeed, Napoli have won each of their last three away games against Milan (all in Serie A), including a 2-1 victory earlier this season. That three-game winning away streak is Napoli’s best-ever such run against Milan.

This is pretty unfamiliar territory for both sides. Napoli have reached the quarter-final stage of the European Cup/Champions League for the first time in their history. They were eliminated by Arsenal in their last European quarter-final appearance in the 2018-19 UEFA Europa League. Milan have reached the quarter-final stage of the UEFA Champions League for the first time since 2011-12 when they were eliminated by Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona. They last went beyond the quarter-finals in 2006-07 when they last won the competition.

However, the biggest storyline ahead of this encounter is the fitness of Osimhen. The striker has netted 25 goals in 29 games this season, but a thigh injury while on international duty with Nigeria has seen him miss both of Napoli’s last two games. The Nigerian’s replacement, Giovanni Simeone, came off the bench against Lecce at the weekend but lasted only 16 minutes before he too left with an injury. Giacomo Raspadori, who started against Lecce, may well do the same again Milan, but with just one goal in 18 league matches this season, Osimhen’s absence may cost Napoli a place in the Champions League semi-finals.

But Spalletti said his team are capable of taking control of the tie without the star striker and urged them to treat the occasion as being “like Christmas Eve.”

“I decided not to play Osimhen because I don’t want him injured for too long,” Spalletti said Tuesday. “We have another game against Milan next week and I want him fit for that.

“But we have won very important games without Osimhen. We are here because we have won without him in this competition and I am expecting the same, that all my players rely on their teammates’ abilities.

“We can’t go on the pitch and be afraid. We need to take this chance and enjoy the game.

“This is like Christmas Eve. The game, the day before the match, the dinner before the match, it is all there to be enjoyed.”

RECENT FORM

The 4-0 shock defeat to Milan aside, Napoli have been in rock-solid form of late. They’ve won three of their last four matches and 11 of their past 13 in all competitions. Napoli won Group A of the 2022-23 Champions League, ahead of Liverpool, Ajax and Rangers. Only five teams have ever scored more goals in a UCL group stage than they managed this season (20). In the round of 16, they comfortably progressed through a tie with Bundesliga side and reigning UEFA Europa League winners Eintracht Frankfurt, 5-0 on aggregate (2-0 away, 3-0 at home).

They are the current highest-scoring team in the 2022-23 Champions League as it stands, with 25 goals, although they’ve got some way to go if they have aspirations of becoming the highest-scoring team in a single UCL season.

Only Bayern Munich (8/8) have won more games in this season’s Champions League than Napoli (7/8), while the Italian side have posted the highest expected goals tally (22.1) of all sides in this season’s competition. Their average of 3.1 goals per game is currently the fifth-best in a single campaign, after Bayern in 2019-20 (3.9), PSG in 2017-18 (3.4), Real Madrid in 2013-14 (3.2) and Liverpool in 2017-18 (3.2).

VERDICT

With a first Scuddeto since the days of Diego Maradona all but sewn up, Napoli have afforded themselves the luxury of being able to put all of their eggs in a Champions League shaped basket between now and the end of the season.

While AC Milan will have home advantage and the confidence gained from their recent 4-0 rout of their fellow Italians, Napoli are a very different beast from all of the opposition they have faced in the Champions League this season so far.

Stefano Pioli’s side were put to the sword home and away by Chelsea during the group stage and they really didn’t really pull up any trees when squeezing past Spurs in the round of 16.

This is stark contrast to Napoli, who kick-started their Champions League campaign in spectacular fashion by scoring freely en-route to claiming top honours in group that included Liverpool and Ajax before eviscerating Europa League holders Eintracht Frankfurt over two legs.

PREDICTION: AC MILAN 1-2 NAPOLI

Grab! The Free Booking Code for Today’s Prediction: YG7UE

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