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Presidential Possibles

Posted by Senan Murray on 2007/01/30 | Views: 587 |

Presidential Possibles


As political parties in Nigeria pick their presidential candidates for the April 2007 elections, the BBC News website's Senan Murray profiles the strongest of them.

As political parties in Nigeria pick their presidential candidates for the April 2007 elections, the BBC News website's Senan Murray profiles the strongest of them.


Umaru Musa Yar'Adua, 56, PDP

The governing People's Democratic Party (PDP) candidate is a little known Muslim former polytechnic teacher, Umaru Musa Yar'Adua.










He is not particularly popular among Hausas who make up a majority in Nigeria's Muslim north, but this relatively colourless politician was President Olusegun Obasanjo's "anointed" successor and this proved crucial in him securing the nomination.

He is the current governor of Katsina State and one of the few serving governors not being investigated for corruption.


His prudent management of money is what is believed to have endeared him to Mr Obasanjo. His late elder brother, Gen Shehu Musa Yar'Adua was President Obasanjo's deputy when he was Nigeria's military ruler between 1976 and 1979.

Taciturn with some leftist leanings, Mr Yar'Adua is famous for his humility.

On more than one occasion, he has ignored the advice of aides and bodyguards by walking alone to a tobacco kiosk to buy a single cigarette.

His critics describe him as slightly totalitarian.

His running mate, Goodluck Jonathan is a southern Christian governor.

Muhammadu Buhari, 64, ANPP

Former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari is the candidate for the main opposition party, the All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP).










Although he lost to President Obasanjo in the 2003 elections, Mr Buhari appears undeterred in his quest to be an elected head of state.

At its September convention, the party made it clear to the former military ruler that he was no longer in charge.

Mr Buhari had hoped to strengthen his influence in the ANPP by backing his supporters for key positions in the party's national executive committee.

But the ANPP governors, who are the party's major financiers, rejected Mr Buhari's candidates, effectively leaving him alone and powerless.

However, when the party met in Abuja to choose its candidate, six of the seven nominees stood aside leaving the road clear for him.

Mr Buhari, who like Mr Yar'Adua is from Katsina State, enjoys some support in the Muslim north and is seen by many Nigerians as a disciplined and prudent man.

But many Christians worry about his strong religious views.

The ANPP and Action Congress (AC) have agreed to unite behind one candidate, which they believe will give them their strongest chance of winning the polls, but means Mr Buhari still has a mountain to climb.


Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, 60, AC

A founding member of the PDP, Vice-President Atiku Abubakar was suspended from the party after he was accused of diverting $125m to personal businesses.









Mr Abubakar denies the accusation but his bitter feud with President Obasanjo led to him becoming the candidate of the opposition Action Congress.

As well as throwing up a potential constitutional crisis by switching political sides while serving as vice-president, Mr Abubakar still has to overcome the ANPP's Mr Buhari if he is to compete in April's elections after an electoral pact between the two parties.

He also has ongoing legal battles to contend with.

A Lagos High Court has voided two reports accusing Mr Abubakar of corruption - but appearances before the Senate and further court appearances could still see him ruled out of contention for the presidency.

A Fulani Muslim, he enjoys wide backing in the predominantly Muslim north.

He had been hoping that the campaign for "power shift" - the idea that it is the north's turn to hold power after Mr Obasanjo, a southerner - would work in his favour.

But all the main candidates so far are northerners, diluting one of his key appeals.

However, his public opposition to attempts to change the constitution to let President Obasanjo stand for a third term in office has put Mr Abubakar in the good books of many Nigerians.


Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida, 65

Former military ruler, Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida, or IBB as he is known among his admirers, is a well-known Nigerian power-broker.










He is said to have played a leading role in the emergence of Mr Obasanjo as president in 1998.

After withdrawing from the race for the PDP ticket, amid reports that Mr Obasanjo declined to back his bid, he has failed to find another party to nominate him before the 22 December deadline for submissions.

But he may not be out of the race completely as until February political parties are able to change their candidates.

Nicknamed "Maradona" by the Nigerian media for his deft and unpredictable political dribbles, he ruled Nigeria for eight years during which he kept shifting the dates on a timetable for a transition to civil rule that he had willingly set.

Mr Babangida was forced out of power by popular protests in 1993 after he annulled elections that were described as the country's freest and fairest yet.

A Muslim northerner like Mr Abubakar, he also enjoys wide support across the region.

He has two assets that are extremely useful for winning elections in Nigeria: a huge pot of money and strong military connection. A third is his sheer charm.

He may decide to cut his losses and throw his weight behind someone else.

But even if he springs a surprise, in a country where incumbency and organisational skills are so important, his chances of becoming president are fading fast.



Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu, 73, APGA faction

A reformed warlord, Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu led the failed Biafra secession move that plunged Nigeria into a three-year civil war that ended in 1970.

Mr Ojukwu is a cult figure among his Igbo people who see him as an emancipator because of his role in the war.

But that is about where his influence ends.

Although he has just been given his party's presidential ticket on a platter, it is only from a faction of the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA), whose field of influence does not go beyond south-eastern Nigeria.

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