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Presidency 2007: Can north gamble 8 years with Yar’ Adua? (II)

Posted by By Brady Chijioke Nwosu, Lagos. on 2007/01/29 | Views: 523 |

Presidency 2007: Can north gamble 8 years with Yar’ Adua? (II)


In the first part of this article, I began with the aftermath of the Imo Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) gubernatorial primary that was inclusive until the January 16th night meeting in Abuja when President Olusegun Obasanjo pronounced Engr. Charles Ugwuh, former President of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), the party’s flag bearer.

In the first part of this article, I began with the aftermath of the Imo Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) gubernatorial primary that was inclusive until the January 16th night meeting in Abuja when President Olusegun Obasanjo pronounced Engr. Charles Ugwuh, former President of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), the party’s flag bearer.

But the recent EFCC release sting against Ugwuh’s alleged embezzlement of over N74m local government funds in Imo state is what is making the rounds now. The situation has set in further confusion and may have sustained the inconclusiveness of the primary.

Ugwuh is Governor Achike Udenwa’s candidate and I belong to same tendency in Imo politics. In the days ahead, we watch and see how it plays out. Like I earlier predicted, the confusion will not be over until the right, credible and God chosen person is filled in.

Preambles for wahala in the nation are brewing now. Instances of these include: The current fuel scarcity, impeachments of state governors, coercion of PDP presidential contenders to withdraw for a godson and anointed candidate, declaration of the seat of the vice president vacant, timing of the release of the census figures and National Assembly negative reaction, the escalating crisis in the Niger Delta and rumoring planned mass and arbitrary ditching of candidates from contesting the General Election of April 2007. All these may be an invitation for national chaos that could lead to crack in unity of the country. The question now on the streets is: Does Obasanjo want to disintegrate Nigeria or is it a game for term elongation?

The issue of Governor Umar Yar’Adua as the PDP residential flag bearer continues to boil within the party, and the country, as a black leggy that may not fly. It is a disturbing situation that has generated fears among members of the party and the general public.

I have investigated retrospectively in vain before now if Yar’Adua has ever whispered to anyone that he hoped to become president. No initial political maneuvering towards presidency 2007. We didn’t see any poster even in his home state and suddenly he popped favourite for the presidency. Since he has been on road campaigning, several policy statements for his intending government remain incoherent because he may not have actually prepared for what he is currently engaged in.

Or may be, he is running against his will. He is a blue blood royalty from a political dynasty that began with his late father, the great Musa Yar’Adua. What political conventional wisdom is stressing is not that Yar’Adua is not fit to govern. After all he is certified through eight year as one of the best governors. He is also still capable to be president of the republic but the bone of contention is, and has been, his speculated illness. It could be terminal and which perhaps is very dangerous to the 2007 presidential slot of the North. We pray this is not.

For instance, in the event if anything happens to Yar’Adua in the course of his presidency (God forbid), his running mate Governor Goodluck Jonathan takes over. Obviously, political analysts will argue that the North have taken their turn. Yar’Adua had already channelled his future as a lecturer in one of the nation’s Universities before he was called up to run. Yar ‘Adua is the godfather’s chosen godson. Already, he is using and enjoying all the goodies of the presidency as president-in-waiting. A president Yar‘Adua may prove not to be pushed around or over, afterall. A disappointed Obasanjo may not tolerate that. Yar’Adua may prove he will not be a wimp president. Under pressure from powerful stakeholders and Nigerian people he may even probe Obasanjo.

However, lets assume hypothetically in the event after the election either of the following prime presidential contenders – Atiku Abubakar, Muhammadu Buhari - emerges as president of the republic, how would they treat or relate with Obasanjo as a person? And his legacy?
Taking Atiku in the first instance, being part of Obasanjo government but who came under the heat through almost more that half of two terms of his eight years as president, he may not like to probe the government because doing that would amount to investigating himself also. Perhaps he would simply torment Obasanjo to cough out all he has made for himself before setting him up towards jail term. Atiku’s guts to do that may depend on removing the log on his eyes first, in order to see the iniquities against his former boss.

For Buhari, based on his perceived human rights record, he might adopt the Abacha treatment: outrightly throw Obasanjo back into jail. Obasanjo and Buhari are in fact enemies and the only good rhythm for an enemy here might appear to be ‘death’. Thus, Obasanjo had criticized Buhari recently that he is still enveloped in the military era and lacking democratic values.

General Ibrahim B. Babangida, in a tender age and as a young military ranker, was incorporated into the elite hall of fame of the nation’s ruling military council- The Supreme Military Council ( SMC ). He played major roles in actualizing Generals Murtala Mohammed and Obasanjo’s regimes respectively. He knows Obasanjo and Obasanjo knows him too. IBB foiled Dimkas’s coup and maintained his loyalty to Obasanjo. He made Obasanjo president in 1999. He has never broken any agreement reached with Obasanjo or any code of secrecy.

He remained and sustained his loyalty to every government of the day. He never believed probing his predecessors. To him probing is an albatross to both predecessors and successors alike. He is a forward-marching leader, a human changer and with his strength of character, IBB will never submit to any temptation or pressure to look backward investigating Obasanjo’s dealing while in government. Back in the good old days, IBB and Obasanjo used to play the game of draft together with the watchful eyes of General T.Y Danjuma.

The more PDP further polishes Yar’Adua’s image and pushes his acceptability, the more it turns otherwise and Buhari electoral value rises. IBB is the only option for the PDP that can match Buhari’s ever growing elect ability. As a loyal member of the party, however, I have opted to play along with the party position. But there is the need to adopt plan “B” and that is, drafting IBB as the platform bearer. Plan “C” IBB; plan “D “IBB. – To plan “Z” IBB, sustained.

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Fay(Katy, Texas, US)says...

Actually translates to bravehearted.