Posted by By STEVE NWOSU on
Barring a last minute change of mind, US president George W. Bush may have rebuffed overtures from President Olusegun Obasanjo to visit the White House in the second leg of his planned visit to the US later this month.
Barring a last minute change of mind, US president George W. Bush may have rebuffed overtures from President Olusegun Obasanjo to visit the White House in the second leg of his planned visit to the US later this month.
The president who is scheduled to be in the United States between March 29 and 30 to articulate his case on the proposed extradition of former Liberian president, Charles Taylor, Saturday Sun gathered, had planned to use the opportunity to also call on President Bush.
However, Saturday Sun gathered that Washington is more disposed to the Nigerian leader flying straight into New York, where the UN has its office, addressing the UN Assembly and returning to Nigeria thereafter.
The snub from the White House is seen by members of the diplomatic corps as another diplomatic masterstroke by the Bush administration aimed at registering America's displeasure with the entire third term project.
The US, Saturday Sun gathered, is mindful of the fact that pro-third term campaigners could use the proposed visit to shore up Obasanjo's international image which has suffered huge setback as a result of the speculated third term agenda.
Although the presidency is said to have comminicated Obasanjo's desire to the US government, using the normal channels, Washington is said to have refused to give any positive response - this, we gathered, is the standard practice when the prospective visitor is not welcome and needs to be rebuffed.
Unrelenting opposition to third term
In spite of their huge economic interests in Nigeria, the United States and its allies have continued to kick against any plot to elongate the stay of anybody, including Obasanjo, in office.
They had communicated this much through every available diplomatic channels, including allowing their secretaries in charge of Africa and embassy officials to speak freely on the need for limitation of tenure as a prerequisite for the consolidation of democracy in Africa.
Recently, when the British Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw, visited Nigeria, one of the very important messages he brought from both the Queen and the British government was to thank Obasanjo for handing over power to a new person in 1979.
Many observers of the UK position on Nigeria insist the statement is a subtle reminder of the need for Obasanjo to do likewise in 2007. He was said to have also communicated this much to Obasanjo privately.
As for the US government, it has also tried to subtly communicated its displeasure with the third term project. Only recently, it was said to have commissioned an independent survey to find out how Nigerians stand on the third term project. The result of that survey showed that as much as 84% of Nigerians don't want third term.
The research conducted betweem last September and December by internationally acclaimed Afro Barometer aslso revealed the a whopping 43% of Nigerians felt the 2003 elections were not free and fair.
It was in its determination to get a true picture of the situation on the ground in Nigeria that the US government was said to have collaborated with the survey group which had conducted similar surveys in more than 18 other African countries.
The fears
According to Saturday Sun sources, the fear of the US and its allies over the project is that if the proponents went ahead with it, in spite of the massive opposition, it could lead to an internal implosion. 'The presidency might be able to suppress the grief of the people for a little while, after that it would all blow up and the repercussion might not be on Nigeria alone", an embassy official told Saturday Sun.
According to the source, the US and the developed world have always relied on Nigeria to help check political crisis in other African countries, 'if the crisis now starts in Nigeria - with your huge population - there is no country on the continent that can be used to control the situation. It would be worse than Yugoslavia".
He said that the fear is not only that the third term thing could lead to the distegration of Nigeria, but that the bloodbath and human dislocation that could come with the process itself would be of monumental magnitude and will also drag Africa back again.
Cost of third term
The narrow-minded review of Nigeria's constitution and the foisting of the likely life-presidency of Gen. Obasanjo may not, however, be the only cost of the ongoing third term project. Saturday Sun learnt that until the controversial agenda assumed the dangerous dimension it has now got to, the US and its allies had pencilled down Obasanjo as a possible replacement for Kofi Anan at the United Nations.
Although there was pressure to take the seat to another region, the US was in a position to swing it back to Africa and Obasanjo. However, with that initial confidence now being eroded by Obasanjo's waning democratic credentials, Saturday gathered that the Western powers are now looking in the direction of South Africa's Thabo Mbeki when he hands over power.
Even if the US group are unable to swing the UN seat, they have resolved to thereafter deal directly with Mbeki as the leader of Africa - a position the ailing Nelson Mandela has occupied since stepping down as President of South Africa.