Posted by Habib Aruna and Tunde Abatan on
The on-going war of attrition between President Olusegun Obasanjo and Vice President Atiku Abubakar over matters that border on disloyalty and which in a way is a fall-out of the race towards the 2007 general elections, may be a prelude to the repeat of age-long disagreements in party politics that have characterised the nation's history since the First Republic and its consequences for democratic sustenance
The on-going war of attrition between President Olusegun Obasanjo and Vice President Atiku Abubakar over matters that border on disloyalty and which in a way is a fall-out of the race towards the 2007 general elections, may be a prelude to the repeat of age-long disagreements in party politics that have characterised the nation's history since the First Republic and its consequences for democratic sustenance, write Assistant Politics Editor Habib Aruna and Tunde Abatan, Senior Correspondent.
Nigeria is a nation peculiar in all characteristics. Apart from being a country of unique diversity which has over the years failed to recognise it to avoid perennial political convulsions at every stage of its development, it has also been in a permanent state of allowing its sad historical experience to repeat itself as its leaders have not learnt how not to relive history. As such it may not be too much to describe her as a nation moving in cycles and never forging ahead.
Hence the on-going power tussle between President Olusegun Obasanjo and his vice, Alhaji Abubakar Atiku, is very instructive and unfortunate. Unfortunate in the sense that both men appear ready to continue the cycle of the prediction May in 1962 at the height of the Western Region crisis when Chief Anthony Enahoro, then a parliamentary member of the opposition Action Group (AG), declared that the move to declare the state of crisis being contemplated by Prime Minister Abubakar Tafawa Balewa government may lead to a chain of reactions. He had declared that the move to remove the Premier of the region, Chief Dauda Soroye Adegbenro, and declared a state of emergency was a move 'which will set up a chain of reactions, the end of which nobody would be able to predict". He was dead right in his reading of the political situation in the country then as events happened in quick succession that later led to a lot of crises which had in a way determined the nature of conflict and the nation's existence up till today.
In his warning to the nation while contributing to the debate on the propriety or otherwise of the action of the Balewa government which had before the Bill to declare the state of emergency in the West was tabled for motion, prepared Dr Moses Adekoyejo Majekoddunmi as the new administrator of the region, Enahoro declared that while the government would carry the day in ensuring the passage of the emergency bill, it may not be able to determine events that would follow. He was proved right again as though the then Federal Government succeeded in having its way, it could not win the heart of the people of the Western Region, which maintained a peace of the graveyard. Its stoic silence was however shattered by the violence that greeted the 1964 general elections during which the people of the region spoke through both the ballot box and their hands.
Events, in quick succession, enveloped the region and led to the destruction of lives and properties and inevitably led to the spread of the violence to other parts of the country, which ultimately consumed the six-year-old democracy. The Northern Peoples Congress (NPC) claimed victory in the elections which they never won and lost the control the region and later the country and its tottering democracy.
Could this be instructive to the men of today whose passion for power has blinded them to the reality of the fragile polity and their limitations in intellect and action necessary to win the peace and save the nation?
The events, which led to the state of emergency declaration in the Western Region, were as significant as what we are witnessing now between the nation's number two citizen and the President. The events of that period were also prompted by the breakdown of mutual trust and respect between the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo, the former premier of the Western Region and his successor, Chief Ladoke Akintola.The crisis all centred on the inability of the two men of influence and power to define the limits of their powers.
While Akintola preferred a relationship with the NPC-led Federal Government as witnessed during the 1962 national convention of the AG in Jos where Akintola stormed out of the meeting to return to the West to receive the Sardauna who was on a tour of the West, leaving Awo and those with him behind, Awo on the other hand thought otherwise and this disagreement later led to Akintola forming his own party and moving out leaving Awo who was the opposition leader at the federal parliament with his political platform threatened.
The feud between Obasanjo and Atiku is not far from this scenario except the cohesiveness of the party they belong. With Atiku holding firmly to a section of the northern flank which Obasanjo used to ride to power, could Obasanjo withstand a PDP without the Peoples Democratic movement (PDM) which hold on the PDP in 1999 ensured the victory of the party in the North?
With the hold on government and patronages, could this be enough to checkmate Atiku's influence on the governors who are daily urging him to opt out of the political quagmire and form a party strong enough to tackle Obasanjo?
Another significant point in the history of power relations in the country are the events which led to the outbreak of the civil war in 1967 after the pogrom in the north which itself was a fall-out of the massacre of the Nigerians of Igbo extraction as a retaliation to the January 15, 1966 coup detat which derailed the First Republic.
That both former Head of State, General Yakubu Gowon and governor of the defunct eastern region, Col Odumegwu Ojukwu could not settle personal differences but rather elevated them to an excuse to declare war is a pointer to the fact that emergent leaders find it rather difficult to put national interest first and forget personal differences for national survival.
In 1983, the refusal of both former Governor of Ondo State, the late Chief Michael Adekunle Ajasin; and Chief Akin Omoboriowo who because of personal ambition joined another party with the sole aim of becoming the governor of the state led to the violence which greeted the governorship election massively rigged by the ruling National Party of Nigeria (NPN) and which later set in motion a series of events which culminated in the return of the military to the centre stage in December 1983.
The Ondo State election result was an event which triggered pent-up emotion by the forceful return of the then NPN to power in the country and the elections which the military government of Major General Mohammadu Buhari cited as one of the reasons for the military take-over.
The ongoing power play and intrigues:
How can the President Obasanjo faction be able to hold on to power without creating a political crisis akin to the events of the past just enumerated above without their dire consequences for the nation?
Could it be possible for President Obasanjo seething from an alleged disloyalty of the vice president to remove the latter from office and yet maintain the political stability which Atiku group was able to evolve before Obasanjo's ascension as a result of his lack of home base and any visible political machinery in the ruling party?
Is it also within the realm of legal possibility without creating an alibi for anti-democratic forces to intervene if the due process is not followed in the alleged removal or impeachment bid?
In his own reaction and analysis of the political situation and the impediments to the removal of the vice president, a chieftain of the ruling PDP from the South West and one of the Board of Trustees members who choose to remain anonymous said that as things stand out now, there are both moral and legal sides to the issue. As for him, if the vice president is found to have been guilty of the offence and it can be proved and the proofs shown to him, he can be impeached. He countered that for now, the impeachment has no implication for the country's politics. As to the moral question, he said that this is left to the electorate to decide. He however said that except Atiku pursues the second option of resigning his appointment if the facts are presented to him and he agrees to his guilt, `it would be pretty difficult to get the support of the National Assembly to effect his removal for obvious reasons. But the question remains if the man is so powerful in the National Assembly, how could the government maintain stability after his ouster?
Still maintaining his anonymity, the party chieftain however introduces another moral dimension, which would probably, unknown to him, present another fresh struggle to the party and the government. This, he said, is reasoned on what he described as the alleged disloyalty and treacherous activities of the vice president before and immediately after the 2003 general elections. 'Do you know that at a stage, the President had to prostrate for him while his wife knelt down so as to support his second term in office? Such a person cannot be trusted with power and as you know in Yoruba politics and tradition, divided loyalty is seen as treachery. We would see how the vee-pee and his men defend his many atrocities,' he said.
But should Atiku explore the option of joining another party, what are the consequensces for the cohesiveness of PDP, given the influence of the PDM?
As for him, this latest option may not work because `government would come out with strong facts which would pose credibility problems for the group and the new party may have a Herculean task of being acceptable to the people. He said the best alternative is for the vice president to voluntarily resign his office.
But Prince Dayo Adeyeye, the national publicity secretary of the Alliance for Democracy (AD), thinks otherwise. In his opinion, the problems likely to be created by the gulf between the two men of power may be more far-reaching and difficult to solve than the simple and straight solution proffered by the PDP chieftain.
He said that while it is true that there are two options that could be used, the options have their disadvantages. He said while the option of resignation is legal as the impeachment but would not be so easy considering the Atiku's men in the National Assembly and the political implications, the President and his men will obviously use the option of mounting political pressures on Atiku to resign. He cited the case of former Deputy Governor of Akwa Ibom State, Chief Chris Ekpenyong and Governor Victor Attah as an example. He said that resignation was as a result of pressure, yet it is quite obvious that it was obtained after pressure. Adeyeye's verdict did not go far as he posited that while the NPC government succeeded in forcing the AG governor out of power in the Western Region, the resultant breakdown of law and order with it implications should not be ruled out in today's Nigeria. He also cited the case of Governor Ayo Fayose and his deputy, Chief Aluko in Ekiti State, adding that with the two examples, the Federal Government knowing its strengths and weaknesses may not opt for impeachment but will opt for the option of mounting pressures for Atiku to resign.
Although Adeyeye said that another option of resignation could come due to ill-health or death of the vee pee, president, governor and his deputy, the government could also employ the weapon of blackmail on account of corrupt practices to force resignation, adding that 'in this case, it is obvious that the ruling PDP may settle for this without considering the political implications for the polity".
Said he: 'President Obasanjo's tactic is to compel the vee pee to resign as he did to Senate President Adolphus Wabara and Dr Okadigbo. There is no other option than this in the present circumstance."
He said that with the obvious decision to force Atiku out, the political implications may be far-reaching and fundamental than those close to the President may ever think, including the consequences to the fledgling democracy.
'It is now obvious that the centre cannot hold for the PDP.The house is already divided, disunited and it is facing a major rumpus which can lead to its collapse," he said.
Besides the implications for the nation's largest party, he said the effects on the unity of the nation could not be contemplated, adding that it maybe the beginning of the end of the PDP as a party even as he said that Nigeria doesn't need a party like that anymore.
As for him, whichever way the crisis goes, the leaders should pause a while and reminiscent on the results of the 1962 Western Region crisis, the state of emergency and the resultant civil war. He added that such political crisis as the one we have now is capable of setting in motion a chain of reactions which he agreed in the words of Enahoro 'can develop a momentum which may set up a chain of reactions, the end of which no one can predict".
He said that to avoid the impeding doom for the nation and its politics, political scientists and analysts should begin to ponder on the solution which should not be long in coming to avoid a catastrophe that could consume the nation.
Atiku the king maker
A founding member of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Lagos State once told Daily Independent about how Vice President Atiku Abubakar, as a leading politician in the land and the arrowhead of the Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM) in late 1998, invited top politicians in the South-West to a meeting in an hotel in Lagos to deliberate on the options before the group as a new chapter was being opened on the nation's politics.
Atiku was said to have convinced those at the meeting on the need for them to put their weight behind the retired general and former Head of State, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, who was widely favoured by the ruling class and the military to take over from Abdulsalami Abubakar.
Parading the likes of the late Samuel Afolabi, Senator Dapo Sarumi, Yomi Edu, Olorunfunmi Bashorun, Jubril Martins-Kuye and the rest, Atiku, who came with one of Obasanjo's long time friend from the South-East, told the gathering that there were enough resources to consummate the agenda, but the important thing, according to him, is for Yoruba leaders to endorse Obasanjo for the presidency.
Though the PDP leader refused to confirm it, Daily Independent gathered that most of the members decided to ride along with Atiku when an implicit agreement was added with the condition that Obasanjo would replicate what happened in South Africa in 1989 when Nelson Mandela ruled for one term and then paved the way for his deputy, Thabo Mbeki, to take over.
Needless to say that when the agenda was eventually actualised, most of those at the meeting were appointed ministers and heads of important parastatals, it is equally instructive to note that the dancing steps changed in 2003 when the drummers changed their beats.
Atiku, acting in consonance with the exigencies of the time and perhaps bearing in mind the agreement between the two, decided to flex his muscle. He announced during the run up to the PDP presidential primaries that he had three options: either to support Dr. Alex Ekwueme, President Obasanjo or better still, to challenge Obasanjo for the PDP's ticket.
To more than casual observers, the joker card was in the hand of Atiku and it was not a surprise that his decision to back his boss on the eve of the National Convention paved the way for Obasanjo's come back. And this ironically has been his albatross. Because even though he supported the President at the polls, the President's men see him as a man they cannot do business with.
That is why most of the PDM members could not make the cabinet list in 2003 and that is why Atiku has been groaning in the dark. Perhaps the Vice President failed to learn from history that his decision to come out to speak against the ambition of his boss was a costly blunder.
'Atiku should have known that he cannot be forgiven by the President for what in political circles is known as a sacrilege", says Tunde Arije, an Ikorodu-based lawyer. 'At best, what Atiku should have done since he knew that he stands a chance of defeating Obasanjo was to have come out and contest the primaries."
Arije said since the President had to watch his back after his second term, the influence of Atiku in the administration has to be curtailed. More than this, according to him, is the fact that the President is not too disposed to handing over to Atiku, which is why there are so many moves to decimate his influence in both the party and Aso rock.
Before now, it was no more under the table that Atiku will have to fight the battle of his life to survive the current onslaught from the hardliners. He has been vilified and his influence curtailed in the reform sweeping through the PDP. How far can he go before he is given the Audu Ogbeh treatment?
Will Atiku go?
Perhaps few politicians, in the more than four decades of the nation's political history, have had their political careers and future in the public domain like Atiku Abubakar.
This has been the case with Atiku in the past few days when President Olusegun Obasanjo went on air to confirm to the world that there is indeed a frosty relationship between him and his deputy.
From beer parlours to television talk shows, the discussions have been centred on what will likely be the fate of a man widely acknowledged as not only a formidable politician, but leading, arguably, the most influential political machine in the country.
As expected, opinions of observers have been divided and at the same time instructive: While most of them believe that it would be difficult for the nation's number two citizen to escape from the lion's den given the fate of those who have passed through the same path, some are of the strong view that it would be difficult for the hawks to dump the Vice President given the daring consequences that would pose to both the party and the democratic process.
Yet, there are some of those who believe that the political system will witness an unprecedented uproar if the hawks within the Peoples Democratic party (PDP) are allowed to have their way. Indeed, going by the words of the President's men, Atiku might not survive the National Executive Committee meeting coming up in two days' time.
Dejo Raimi, a PDP chieftain, for instance, told Daily Independent that Atiku is not likely to escape expulsion on Friday given the numerous allegations against him. Raimi, who did not hide his disdain for the Vice President, said the party should do away with him as, according to him, he does not possess what he claims to have.
'It's not only PDM that is in the PDP, let us know how many of us are left in the PDP, let them go", Raimi stated. 'We have this Usman Bugaje, all of them boasting, we know them, they are few.
'Every time they boast, 25 governors, 28 governors, let them go and let us see how many governors will follow them. If they get more than six or seven governors, then don't call me Raimi again. Because the tide has reached a point that is almost intolerable to most of us." He said.
He spoke further: 'How can a deputy who has spent eight years in the shadow of a President in the seat of power say that Mr. President must hand over to him? Is it the duty of Mr. President or it is the duty of the party, the electorate, and Nigerians?
'Every time ,they say Mr. President doesn't want to hand over to Atiku. If they have both spent eight years together and another person must take over, why can't the two of them go together," he fumed. For sure, Raimi must have spoken the mind of many of those who believe that Atiku has had his own time in the sun and should therefore leave the scene.
But political associates of the Vice President are not likely to just watch as the future of their leader is put on the line. They may have indeed decided to fight back to save Atiku's political career
It was reliably gathered at the weekend that members of the PDM have been organising series of meetings, both at home and abroad, for the best way of responding to the current political development in the country.
One of the PDM leaders in Lagos State confirmed the meetings, saying that most of them are not unmindful that the feud between the two leaders was masterminded to decimate the influence of their man and reduce his chances of taking over in 2007.
'We cannot just sit down and be watching as our leader is being subjected to all kinds of unfounded allegations. We all knew all his efforts in 1999 to make sure that Obasanjo becomes the President. Look at how they are now paying him back", the PDM leader who wants to be kept in the dark said.
The strategy that the PDM wants to adopt, according to a source, is to mandate some of their leaders to speak out against what they described as a danger signal that may lead to the demise of the PDP with a major shake-up in the nation's politics.
The statements credited to Alhaji Lawal Kaita against the PDP leadership was said to be part of the agenda. Besides, it was gathered that the group has also mandated the former Vice Chancellor of the Ahmadu Bello University, Professor Ango Abdullahi, to prepare a statement stating the PDM's position and the way forward for the PDP.
Kaita, PDM's chairman, had said that the PDP should defend democracy or disappear from the nation's political scene. He defended Atiku's comment on the speculated third term bid, saying that it is a basic right, which the constitution guaranteed.
Given the present structure of the PDP, it is an easy guess that the party might not find it too difficult to dump the Vice President. But Atiku and his supporters, from all indications, are not likely to just sit down and watch as the hawks pull all the strings; they will surely fight back.
A member of the PDP NEC, who craved anonymity, told daily Independent at the weekend that it would be very difficult for the Ogbeh treatment to be meted out to Atiku because of his wide support among the governors and members of the National Assembly.
'Friday's meeting will be very decisive to the party as the Vice President cannot just sit down and watch. I expect his supporters to come out in full force to back him", the PDP leader said. 'Even if the party suspends him, it cannot be a popular vote since the party is in the President's pocket."
Even then, some party members have questioned the moral authority of Senator Ahmadu Ali, PDP National Chairman, who is currently enmeshed in allegations of corrupt practices to preside over the ‘Atiku's trial". To them, Ali should be under probe and not a moral crusader.
'Ali cannot intervene in this crisis because he has lost the moral courage to do so," the NEC member stressed. But there are those who are of the view that the President cannot afford to let Ali go now that he has ‘an important job' for him to prosecute.
For now, the political system is on the edge as the two gladiators fight for the soul of both the party and the nation. It is not likely that the President may want to work with Atiku going by his utterances and postures, but would it be that easy to dump him?
Yet not removing him, as some pundits have argued, will be more dangerous as he might plot the fall of Obasanjo. To even stretch the issue further, has the President, who was literally on his kneels begging for a second ticket, acquired sagacity and acumen to withstand the storm that might result from the removal of Atiku?
These are salient questions that might be difficult to answer. But as it is, the unpredictable nature of the political terrain might experience its own hurricane.