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With a new People’s Democratic Party, PDP, leadership that is loyal to him, President Goodluck Jonathan takes a vantage position for the 2015 presidential race

The next presidential election in Nigeria would take place in 2015 which is about three years away. But
there are indications that some political gladiators, especially in the People’s Democratic Party, PDP, have already begun subtle moves to position themselves strategically for the race.

Signs of the political manoeuvres and scheming by some politicians ahead of the 2015 race manifested during the March 24 national convention of the PDP. The hair-splitting intrigues and power play which preceded the emergence of Bamanga Tukur as the new national chairman of the PDP clearly indicated that it is a prelude to the 2015 succession battle.

President Goodluck Jonathan had warned at the convention that party members “must resist the temptation to allow inordinate ambition and what appears to be a growing obsession with the politics of succession in 2015, to cause disaffection within our ranks.” Although the president was apparently referring to the camp of Atiku Abubakar, former vice-president, which is believed to have commenced behind the scene political manoeuvres in preparation for his 2015 presidential ambition, the president’s body language shows that he too is keen in seeking for a second-term mandate. This was why he effectively utilised the convention to put in place formidable and “loyal” PDP machinery which would give him a smooth sail when the chips are down if he eventually decides to run in 2015.

Besides, Jonathan also used the convention to clip the wings of Atiku because he realised  that the Adamawa-born politician was already neck-deep in preparations for the actualisation of his presidential ambition in 2015.

Indeed, the horse trading that preceded the convention was a pointer to the fact  that while  Atiku and his political foot soldiers  in the North were   mapping out strategies for  his 2015 presidential ambition, Jonathan was equally  relying on the support of some PDP power brokers to thwart such moves.  Newswatch learnt that the three musketeers who assisted Jonathan in ensuring the emergence of Tukur as the new national chairman of the PDP were Olusegun Obasanjo, former president; Tony Anenih, former chairman, PDP board of trustees, and Ahmadu Ali, former national chairman of the party. These three politicians were the unseen hands in the game of intrigues which played out at the convention.

 It was gathered that although Jonathan is pretending not to be interested in the 2015 race at least for now in order not heat up the polity, he was persuaded by Obasanjo to use the convention to assert his authority when he realised that Atiku was already surreptitiously working with Ibrahim Babangida, former military president, to ensure that power returns to the North in 2015. Obasanjo, who has been hell bent on frustrating any move by Atiku to become the president of Nigeria, teamed up with Anenih and Ali to give Jonathan the desired support to abort the plan of the former vice-president to install his preferred candidate, Musa Babayo, ex-minister of agriculture as PDP national chairman.

Although Garba Shehu, spokesman of Atiku told Newswatch that the former vice-president did not have any candidate at the convention, political pundits believe he was one of Babayo’s sponsors. Indeed, Atiku’s camp which had the backing of Murtala Nyako, governor of Adamawa State, and other governors from the North-East drew the first blood in the battle.  Three days to the convention, Atiku’s camp influenced the North-East governors to sponsor Babayo who defeated Tukur at the party’s zonal congress in Bauchi.  Babayo polled 14 votes to defeat Tukur who had two votes.

The president was said to have been ruffled by the defiance of some governors in the North-East like Isa Yuguda of Bauchi State, Ibrahim Dankwambo of Gombe and Nyako of Adamawa states who allegedly teamed up with Atiku to humiliate Tukur, his “anointed candidate” at the zonal congress.

Jonathan’s response was swift. He launched into series of meetings to lobby the governors and other stakeholders to get them to back Tukur. Initially, his effort seemed to have had little or no effect on the governors from the North-East who remained adamant on supporting Babayo. The governors had asked the president to leave the contest open for delegates to decide. But Jonathan felt that since all other officers at the state level had been elected through consensus, it would be a waste of time for delegates to flex muscles over an issue the party could easily resolve.

By the night of Friday, March 23, the president and his team, including Namadi Sambo, vice-president, Ibrahim Mantu, former deputy senate president who was Tukur’s campaign manager and Anenih intensified efforts to browbeat the North-East governors to adopt Tukur as consensus candidate. Before this time, the president had successfully secured the support of the governors of South-South, South-East, South-West and North-Central for Tukur.

 Newswatch learnt that in the course of an all-night meeting at the Presidential Villa, the president told the North-East governors in clear and unambiguous terms to persuade the other 10 chairmanship candidates to step down for Tukur.  Newswatch gathered that the deal that finally gave the seat to Tukur on a platter of gold was sealed at about 2.30 a.m. on that Friday night after three hours of talks with the governors, party leaders, and chairmanship candidates.

It was at this juncture that Danbaba Suntai, governor of Taraba State, who had Idris Waziri, former minister of commerce as his candidate, agreed to endorse Tukur. Yuguda and Ibrahim Dankwanbo, governors of Bauchi and Gombe states also accepted Tukur as the consensus candidate. When Nyako, governor of Adamawa State who had Babayo as his candidate saw that other governors had endorsed Tukur, he had no option than to toe their line. At the end, it was agreed that the 10 contestants should be asked to step down for Tukur at the convention ground so that he would emerge as the consensus candidate.

This was what performed the magic that saw Tukur emerging as the consensus candidate.

The other candidates from the North-East geopolitical  zone who were compelled to step down for Tukur  were Rufai Alkali, immediate past national publicity secretary of the party, Idris Waziri, former minister of commerce;  Shettima Mustapha, former minister of agriculture; Musa Babayo, former national secretary of the party; Adamu Bello, former minister of agriculture, Gambo Lawan, an elder statesman from Borno State;  Adamu Mu’azu, former governor  of Bauchi State;  Abba Aji, a former special adviser to the President on National Assembly Matters; Senator Abba Aji, Bunu Sheriff, a former minister of  the Federal Capital Territory, FCT, and Ibrahim Birma.

After arm-twisting the North-East governors to adopt Tukur, Jonathan’s lobby team also moved to facilitate the emergence of Olagunsoye Oyinlola, former governor of Osun State and Obasanjo’s ‘anointed candidate’ as the consensus  national secretary. This was because while other candidates from the South-West had agreed to step down for Oyinlola, Ebenezer Babatope, former transport minister, and Tunde Adeniran, a professor of political science and former education minister, refused to comply. The two politicians refused to concede to the consensus option in favour of Oyinlola until they arrived Eagle Square, venue of the convention.

 It was at the convention venue that they finally stepped down reluctantly. Indeed, it was clear from Babatope’s speech announcing his withdrawal that he did so grudgingly. “I am not withdrawing for anybody but for the party. I have been prevailed upon by friends to withdraw; otherwise I was determined to go ahead even if I was going to get only one vote. So, I am not stepping down for anybody. I am stepping down for the party. I have decided to step down as a mark of respect for President Goodluck Jonathan and Vice-President Namadi Sambo. I believe the party is supreme.”

Before the commencement of the convention, Shettima Mustafa, on behalf of himself and nine other aspirants, also announced that they had all withdrawn their candidature for Tukur.  “Having discussed the issues and having been invited by the leadership of the party, we were requested to co-operate. On behalf of the aspirants, we concede. I am mandated to concede this office to the candidate so chosen for the position,” Mustapha said in his short speech.

When it was certain that the coast was clear for the “anointed candidates,” Ibrahim Shehu Shema, governor of Katsina State, moved the motion to formally dissolve the caretaker national executive led by Abubakar Kawu Baraje to pave way for the election of a new executive that would run the affairs of the party in the next four years. 

Haliru Bello Mohammed, chairman of PDP electoral panel, then mounted the podium to roll out the modus operandi of the election. But it was not the type of election that would actually be contested or offer the delegates any choice of candidates. All the delegates were required to do was simply affirm the candidates who were already anointed by the president and the party leadership as “consensus candidates.”

 Everything was arranged to look like there would be real contests, but the powers- that -be in the PDP instructed Mohammed to simply call out the names of the consensus candidates for the various offices for affirmation. First, the total number of delegates accredited was 3,248, but that was for the four offices delegates were allowed to vote. They are national chairman, national secretary, national auditor, and financial secretary. Tukur, the sole candidate for the post of national chairman scored 3,185 “Yes” votes, 12 “No” votes while 51 votes were invalid. For the post of national secretary, Oyinlola scored 3,061 with 95 invalid votes; Dapo Sarumi got eight votes while Owolabi Salis got one. Bolaji Ajani was affirmed as national auditor with 2,975 out of the 3,065 votes cast.

There was no election for other positions where candidates emerged by consensus. The candidates were Sam Sam Jaja, who is believed to be Chibuike Amaechi’s candidate as deputy national chairman, Olisa Metu as national publicity secretary, Kema Chikwe, former minister of aviation believed to be Obasanjo’s (candidate) as national women leader, Abubakar Mustapha, Vice-President Sambo’s candidate as national organising secretary, Garba Umar Chiza, national youth leader, and Bode Mustapha, national auditor. Others were  Hanatu Umar,  deputy national women leader; Bala Kaoje, national treasurer, Timothy Enekechi, deputy national treasurer; Solomon Onwe,  deputy national secretary; Victor Pam,  national legal adviser; Umar Ibrahim,  deputy national auditor; Awal Baraje, assistant financial secretary; Ote Iniadote, deputy organising secretary, and Mohammed Magaji, assistant legal adviser. They were affirmed individually after Mohammed’s voice vote.

Following the emergence of Tukur and other “anointed candidates” as members of the party’s new executive, Jonathan felt relieved and had to cut short his attendance at the convention to travel to South Korea where he participated in the Nuclear Security Summit.

In his post-election speech, the elated Tukur said “there are no winners, no losers. We are all winners.”  He promised to build a stronger party with internal democracy, discipline and fairness to all as guiding principles.

 However, the manner with which Tukur emerged as national chairman by consensus through the overbearing influence of the Presidency and PDP power brokers has created the impression that he was being positioned to do their bidding in 2015 when the next presidential election would take place.  There are insinuations that it was meant to brighten Jonathan’s chances of re-election should he decide to run in 2015. Tukur was the chairman of the Campaign Council of Jonathan in the 2011 election and he was the person who raised the president’s hand and introduced him as PDP flag bearer at Eagle Square, Abuja. By supporting Tukur to secure the chairmanship position, Jonathan was also paying him back for standing by him in 2011 when many other Northern politicians opposed his candidacy.

The adoption of Tukur as consensus candidate by the Presidency was no mere coincidence considering the fact that he hails from Adamawa State, the home-state of Atiku who is already preparing to take another shot at the presidency in 2015. Newswatch learnt that the political calculation which informed Tukur’s choice as national chairman was based on the belief that it will be difficult for a national chairman and a presidential candidate to come from the same state. Although the president has not declared openly for the race, his strategists believe that the best option was to neutralise Atiku from the word go.

Besides, the emergence of Tukur would likely affect his chances not only because they are from the same state but the fact that the two Adamawa-born politicians do not enjoy a robust relationship. When Tukur was defeated by Babayo at the North-East congress held in Bauchi a few days before the convention, he fingered Atiku as the mastermind of the fate he suffered. According to him, Atiku’s ambition for the 2015 presidential election was responsible for the gang-up against him by some notable politicians in the North-East. Tukur had described Atiku as “a desperate politician with a threatened ambition.”

He claimed that the former vice-president did not want anybody from Adamawa State to occupy the PDP chairmanship seat because he believes that it would jeopardise his 2015 presidential ambition.

But Shehu, spokesman of Atiku, told Newswatch that his boss was not bothered by such political permutations that his coming from the same state with Tukur would pose a threat to his 2015 presidential ambition.  “I would say that the constitution has placed no obstacle on the part of Atiku should he raise his hand to say he wants to be president in 2015,” he said. Shehu recalled that before the 2007 elections when Ahmadu Ali was the PDP chairman that led the late Yar’Adua to the convention, people were saying that the party chairman and the president should not come from the same region. However, Ali   remained as national chairman until he delivered Yar’Adua as president, and then stepped down for the South-East geopolitical zone to take over. “Assuming that Atiku throws his hat into the ring by 2015 and by providence, Bamanga Tukur happens to be the chairman of the party, so what? If the president happens to be Atiku in 2015, and he will be, the party will convene and decide to take the chairman not even to neighbouring Taraba or Borno states, no; in fact, the entire North will lose the party chairmanship position because that is the tradition of the PDP,” Shehu said.

On his part, Olisa Metu, the new national publicity secretary of the PDP, denied the impression that the convention was used to choose candidates who will do the president’s bidding in 2015. Rather, he said the present party leadership and the government would be more interested in providing infrastructure than think of 2015 now. He, however, told Newswatch that there was nothing wrong with Mr. President openly supporting any candidate of his choice since he is a super delegate and has his own preferences.

Tukur also dismissed insinuations that he would be Mr. President’s stooge and was positioned to do his bidding in 2015. “I am not anybody’s candidate, I am for members of the PDP, I believe in them. I will work with them to build the party. The governors, the state chairmen, the National Working Committee, stakeholders and indeed all the members of our party elected me and I have a duty to work for them. People can say anything they like but in the course of time they will see what we will do during our tenure. My mission is to make the party what it is supposed to be,” he said.

Apart from the manner in which Tukur and other ‘anointed candidates’ emerged as members of the PDP national executive, another factor that has reinforced the speculation about the 2015 presidency is the return of spin-doctors. Although Jonathan has not publicly declared his interest to seek re-election in the 2015 election, his kinsmen have embarked on campaigns for his second-term ticket. The moves, apparently aimed at feeling the pulse of other zones ahead of 2015, were being spearheaded by ex-militant leaders. In the past few weeks, some personalities from the South-South geopolitical zone have been urging Jonathan to seek for second term in office. For instance, Mujahid Dokubo Asari, an ex-militant leader, said recently that Jonathan would rule Nigeria for eight years. “Jonathan has an eight -year tenure. If he wants to go for eight years, he has the right to do so. But if he says he does not want to go, it is politics,” he said. Reminded that the President had earlier pledged to rule for one term, Dokubo said: “We can’t take that. He cannot use the South-South opportunity and say he will not. Other people used eight years.”

Udengs Eradiri, former secretary of Ijaw Youth Council, IYC, apparently referring to Atiku, said he was aware that some people had already started preparing for the 2015 race. Such people, he said, were wasting their time.  “We know the dance steps but we don’t have time for them because they are wasting their time. I know that other groups have started meetings to consolidate power but we must finish our eight years,” Eradiri said.

For Government Ekpemupolo alias Tompolo, another ex-militant leader, President Jonathan should not be blackmailed into forfeiting his constitutional right to seek re-election in 2015. “We, as the people of the Niger Delta have equal rights like every other zone of the country. President Jonathan can still run for a second term and nobody has the right to stop him because Obasanjo did eight years. If not for death, the late President Umaru Yar’Adua would have run for a second tenure like every other person. Jonathan has every right and nobody can stop him,” Ekpemupolo said.

The 2015 spin doctors from the South-South recently received support from an unusual quarters  when Al-Mustapha Jokolo, deposed Emir of Gwandu,  advised the northern  politicians already jostling for political power in 2015 to  tarry a while. He said   they should give the South-South another four-year term beginning from 2015. He even went further to assert that the North should forget the presidency for another eight years. “The South-South produces the oil for God’s sake. So, I am strongly advocating that for peace to reign in Nigeria, South-South must be given another term of four years in 2015…The one year Jonathan spent before the 2011 election is part of Yar’Adua’s tenure, so this is just the first term of the South-South. The region should be given another term of four years after Jonathan’s first term. After that, the South-East should also be given another four years after South-South’s second term. It is after that that the north can now have it,” Jokolo said.

Reported by Tobs Agbaegbu and Haruna Salami